Two scarcities. One scoreboard.
Bitcoin and gold against the major asset classes — across the most recent market cycle.
Three years
through the cycle.
Bars sorted by total return, highest to lowest. Returns are buy-and-hold price returns from each window's start date to today's price. Negative returns shown in red.
Two different forms
of scarcity.
Performance is the consequence, not the thesis. The thesis is that two assets — one ancient, one synthetic — share a property nothing else on the chart can claim: a supply that cannot be expanded by decision.
Bitcoin
Digital scarcity, enforced by code. A fixed supply of 21 million units, settling globally without permission, with monetary upside that compounds asymmetrically as adoption deepens.
Gold
Physical scarcity, enforced by geology. Five thousand years of monetary trust, globally recognized as collateral, with central banks accumulating at record pace as fiat credibility erodes.
Honest math.
Documented assumptions.
Window selection
The default three-year view captures the most recent complete market cycle — through rate hikes, the regional banking stress of 2023, and the subsequent easing into 2026. The one-year and five-year tabs allow comparison across shorter and longer horizons to test the durability of the underlying story.
Asset proxies
Bitcoin uses spot BTC/USD. Gold uses a manually updated XAU/USD reference price in USD per troy ounce. Equity benchmarks use SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (NASDAQ 100), and an equal-weighted basket of the seven largest US technology companies. Real estate uses VNQ. Long bonds use TLT.
Two assets, two scarcities
Bitcoin and gold share the property that distinguishes monetary assets from financial assets: a supply that cannot be expanded by decision. Bitcoin enforces this through code. Gold enforces it through geology. The chart compares both, individually, against asset classes whose supply is governed by central planning.
What the numbers exclude
All figures are price returns. They exclude dividends from equity benchmarks, custody fees, transaction costs, and taxes. Real-world investor outcomes will differ. Past performance of any reference asset does not predict the future performance of 475 Capital or any of its instruments.
Numbers tell you
where capital wants to go.
Bitcoin and gold have been the standout performers of the modern monetary era. The chart above measures only the underlying asset prices — it makes no claim about any company, fund, or instrument.
Total return figures are computed from reference market prices and updated periodically; Bitcoin's current price is fetched live where available. Charts on this page are for illustrative and educational purposes only. They are not investment advice, an offer to sell securities, or a solicitation to invest. All asset values are subject to material loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.